Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 23.384907 25.441727 27.658680 30.236413 33.164552 36.403067 40.277565
2026-02-01 20.224932 23.052125 26.310049 30.383947 35.402026 41.462447 49.463952
2026-02-08 17.887024 21.133098 25.075472 30.306646 37.209205 46.223719 59.277591
2026-02-15 16.106486 19.582851 23.988424 30.131169 38.733072 50.785374 69.830189
2026-02-22 14.710505 18.311550 23.039428 29.916052 40.061847 55.217064 81.243196
2026-03-01 13.636072 17.320506 22.308589 29.840632 41.494440 59.982550 94.439423
2026-03-08 12.740485 16.467152 21.648888 29.737694 42.805085 64.738080 109.019842
2026-03-15 12.285153 16.170339 21.726789 30.715973 45.944733 73.195870 133.709355
2026-03-22 11.559960 15.417793 21.049782 30.406165 46.839280 77.755432 151.970185
2026-03-29 10.988887 14.840913 20.576155 30.352501 48.146458 83.366998 175.179719
2026-04-05 10.560091 14.439707 20.330341 30.636053 50.094553 90.734487 206.792075
2026-04-12 10.078508 13.921866 19.852469 30.455781 51.110146 96.315261 236.615881
2026-04-19 9.627048 13.431551 19.396603 30.295332 52.207984 102.561537 273.670192
2026-04-26 9.238401 13.015663 19.031638 30.263136 53.579441 109.935812 321.327930
2026-05-03 8.859445 12.591462 18.620047 30.098661 54.645127 116.892470 374.626638
2026-05-10 8.503881 12.183411 18.205122 29.882324 55.562239 123.778157 436.121969
2026-05-17 8.174748 11.799333 17.803568 29.649039 56.404125 130.773343 508.476874
2026-05-24 7.894812 11.480485 17.493204 29.564461 57.589277 139.301013 605.151974
2026-05-31 7.632450 11.176512 17.187931 29.457921 58.705943 148.089300 723.165024
2026-06-07 7.541423 11.154965 17.387134 30.420684 62.738324 168.919864 1005.278041
2026-06-14 7.281375 10.831100 17.010719 30.113813 63.350803 177.349883 1200.857092
2026-06-21 7.071780 10.584071 16.761393 30.060270 64.660596 189.311110 1504.145978
2026-06-28 6.917217 10.424937 16.666396 30.339691 66.979428 206.961162 2031.798678